Richard Tol

Richard Tol

Credentials

  • M.Sc. Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 19921โ€œProf Richard Tol,โ€ Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Archived August 8, 2014.
  • Ph.D. Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 19972โ€œProf Richard Tol,โ€ Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Archived August 8, 2014.

Background

Professor Richard Tol is an economist, academic and was an advisor to the climate denial organisation the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Tol claims to specialise in assessing the economic implications of climate change impacts and policy approaches. His analysis suggests economic impacts from climate change are negligible and possibly beneficial, at least until the latter part of the 21st century.

Tol has also worked closely with the Copenhagen Consensus Center, a US-registered think tank founded by Danish political scientist Dr Bjorn Lomborg. Tol is a Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Sussex, and a Professor at the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU University Amsterdam.

Tol has been involved in writing United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports in various capacities as an author (contributing, lead, principal, and convening) for the working groups looking at the physical science, the impacts and the ways to mitigate climate change.3โ€œProf Richard Tol,โ€ Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Archived August 8, 2014. 4โ€œRichard Tol Dons Cloak of Climate Denial,โ€ DeSmog, July 14, 2014. 5โ€œProf. dr. R.S.J. Tol,โ€ Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University. Archived August 8, 2014.

Richard Tol was previously a research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, the Michael Otto Professor of Sustainability and Global Change at Hamburg University and an Adjunct Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.โ€6โ€œProf Richard Tol,โ€ Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Archived August 8, 2014.

According to his own Twitter biography, Richard Tol is the โ€œscholar most-cited by Stern Review.โ€ One profile of Tol describes him as a โ€œClimate economist, unafraid to fight.โ€7โ€œTwitter Biography,โ€ Richard Tol. Archived August 8, 2014. 8โ€œRichard Tol – Climate economist, unafraid to fight,โ€ Road to Paris. Archived August 8, 2014.

Since about June 2013, Tol has been engaged in a public fight with the authors of a popular scientific journal paper which found that 97 per cent of climate change studies carried out since 1991 agreed that global warming was mostly caused by human activity.

Tol nevertheless agrees a scientific consensus on global warming exists, but argues over the methodology used to arrive at the 97% figure.

Stance on Climate Change

April 1, 2014

โ€œHumans are a tough and adaptable species. People live on the equator and in the Arctic, in the desert and in the rainforest. We survived ice ages with primitive technologies. The idea that climate change poses an existential threat to humankind is laughable,โ€ Tol wrote at The Financial Times.9Marlo Lewis. โ€โ€œThe idea that climate change poses an existential threat to humankind is laughableโ€ โ€” Prof. Richard Tol,โ€ GlobalWarming.org, April 1, 2014. Archived August 8, 2014. 10Richard Tol. โ€œBogus prophecies of doom will not fix the climate,โ€ The Financial Times, March 31, 2014.

July 2014

Tol talked at a small gathering of climate change deniers at the UKโ€™s House of Commons in London. During the meeting, Tol said:11โ€œRichard Tol Dons Cloak of Climate Denial,โ€ DeSmog, July 14, 2014.

โ€œFrom a selfish point of view Iโ€™d put my money into adaptation. We can adapt without having to seek cooperation from India and China. We would have much greater control over it.โ€12โ€œRichard Tol Dons Cloak of Climate Denial,โ€ DeSmog, July 14, 2014.

Key Quotes

October 2016

Writing in a working paper, Tol announces that a carbon tax is all that we need to combat climate change:13Working Paper Series No. 96-2016: The Structure of the Climate Debateโ€ (PDF), University of Sussex Department of Economics, August 19, 2016. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.

โ€œ[C]limate change is a relatively small problem that can easily be solved: We just need a modest carbon tax.โ€

โ€[โ€ฆ] First-best climate policy is simple: A uniform carbon tax, rising steadily over time, is all we need.โ€

August 2014

โ€œIt is pretty damn obvious that there are positive impacts of climate change, even though we are not always allowed to talk about them.โ€14โ€œIPCC author brands upcoming report ‘alarmist’,โ€ The Guardian, March 28, 2014. Archived August 12, 2014.

January 2009

โ€œThe impact of climate change is relatively small. The average impact on welfare is equivalent to losing a few per cent of income. That is, the impact of a century worth of climate change is comparable to the impact of one or two years of economic growth.โ€15โ€œWhy Worry About Climate Change?,โ€ Richard Tol, January 1, 2009.

Key Deeds

November 19, 2020

Tol was quoted in The Telegraph criticising Prime Minister Boris Johnsonโ€™s policies for a โ€˜Green Industrial Revolutionโ€™, claiming they could lead to unemployment. Tol reportedly stated: โ€œa large relative increase in employment in energy is easily offset by a small relative decrease in employment in the rest of the economy.โ€16Ryan Bourne. โ€œPlugging into Boris Johnsonโ€™s Green Deal will cost us all a pretty penny,โ€The Telegraph, November 19, 2020. Archived November 23, 2020. Archive.vn URL: https://archive.vn/weCLT

September 2019

The Australian reported Tol was among those named in a statement by academic website The Conversation, which said it would ban comments from climate change deniers. The list was drawn from research published in the journal Nature, tracking the academic publications of climate change deniers and expert scientists across research in digital and print media on climate change. Those on the list included Richard Lindzen, Jennifer Marohasy, Judith Curry, Richard Tol, Bjorn Lomborg, Ian Plimer, and Maurice Newman.17Graham Lloyd. โ€œNo place in debate for climate contrarians,โ€ The Australian, September 21, 2019. Archive URL: https://archive.vn/qIzvs 18Petersen, A.M., Vincent, E.M. & Westerling, A.L. Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians. Nat Commun 10, 3502 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09959-4

Alex Petersen, lead author of the study, said: โ€œItโ€™s time to stop giving these people (contrarians) visibility, which can be easily spun into false authority. โ€ฆ By tracking the digital traces of specific individuals in vast troves of publicly available media data, we developed methods to hold people and media outlets accountable for their roles in the climate change denialism movement, which has given rise to climate change misinformation at scale.โ€19Graham Lloyd. โ€œNo place in debate for climate contrarians,โ€ The Australian, September 21, 2019. Archive URL: https://archive.vn/qIzvs

Curry said the paper โ€œdoes substantial harm to climate science โ€ฆ There are a spectrum of perspectives, especially at the knowledge frontiers. Trying to silence or delegitimise any of these voices is very bad for science.โ€20Graham Lloyd. โ€œNo place in debate for climate contrarians,โ€ The Australian, September 21, 2019. Archive URL: https://archive.vn/qIzvs

The Conversation‘s editor and executive director Misha Ketchell commented: โ€œWe moderate anything that is a deliberate misinformation and distortion of facts or attempts to misrepresent arguments or community members. We know climate sceptics are very good at derailing constructive conversations, so weโ€™ll remove comments that attempt to hijack threads or to push an agenda or argument irrelevant to the discussion.โ€21Graham Lloyd. โ€œNo place in debate for climate contrarians,โ€ The Australian, September 21, 2019. Archive URL: https://archive.vn/qIzvs

October 29, 2018

Michael Bastasch, reporting at The Daily Caller, cited a Twitter post by Richard Tol as evidence that โ€œSpending hundreds of millions of dollars on climate conferences has done nothing to cut emissions.โ€22Michael Bastasch. โ€œUN CLIMATE SUMMIT COSTS RISE WITH CO2 EMISSIONS, NOW EXCEED 0 MILLION, ECONOMIST SAYS,โ€ The Daily Caller, October 29, 2018. Archived November 7, 2018. Archive.fo URL: https://archive.fo/JSph5

Tol had posted a graph on Twitter designed to illustrate rising costs of the United Nation’s annual Framework Convention on Climate Changeโ€™s (UNFCCC). Rather than using concrete values, โ€œTol multiplied the number of meetings by the length of each meeting, the number of participants and travels costs and salaries for government workers,โ€ Bastasch wrote.23Michael Bastasch. โ€œUN CLIMATE SUMMIT COSTS RISE WITH CO2 EMISSIONS, NOW EXCEED 0 MILLION, ECONOMIST SAYS,โ€ The Daily Caller, October 29, 2018. Archived November 7, 2018. Archive.fo URL: https://archive.fo/JSph5

โ€œNumber of meetings is known,โ€ Tol said via email. โ€œLength of meetings is approximately known โ€“ two weeks for the main negotiations, one week for the committees, two days for the rest.โ€24Michael Bastasch. โ€œUN CLIMATE SUMMIT COSTS RISE WITH CO2 EMISSIONS, NOW EXCEED 0 MILLION, ECONOMIST SAYS,โ€ The Daily Caller, October 29, 2018. Archived November 7, 2018. Archive.fo URL: https://archive.fo/JSph5

July 23, 2018

Tol co-authored a paper published via the University of Sussex suggesting the world’s 100 poorest countries would be most affected by climate change.25โ€œClimate change will only affect the economic growth of the poorest nations,โ€ University of Sussex, July 23, 2018. Archived July 29, 2018. Archive.is URL: https://archive.fo/UgRIZ

โ€œThe concern is that climate change will only widen the gulf of inequality between rich and poorer countries around the world in the upcoming decades. World leaders need to understand this risk and work towards minimising it before the full impact of climate change is felt by the worldโ€™s poorest nations. For example, emission reduction policies that harm economic growth in poor countries, by restricting access to cheap sources of energy, should be avoided,โ€ Tol said.

โ€œOur analysis suggests that weather shocks affect economic growth through a reduction in productivity only when coupled with poverty; it doesnโ€™t show that climate change will harm all future economic growth by affecting technological progress, as hypothesized in some literature. Given the importance of total productivity growth for long-run development, our paper raises concerns over the inequality of future climate impacts, and calls for policy makers to consider poverty reduction as a crucial element of climate policy in future.โ€26โ€œClimate change will only affect the economic growth of the poorest nations,โ€ University of Sussex, July 23, 2018. Archived July 29, 2018. Archive.is URL: https://archive.fo/UgRIZ

View the full study here.

February 2018

In a paper titled โ€œThe economic impacts of climate change,โ€ published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Tol concluded that โ€œthe welfare impacts of initial warming are positive.โ€27โ€œMore flaws in estimates of the economic impacts of climate change,โ€ The London School of Economics and Political Science, February 7, 2018. Archived February 16, 2018. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/Fzphl

The paper was criticised by Bob Ward, policy and communication director for the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, who called the findings โ€œunsound.โ€ Ward said Tolโ€™s findings were โ€œbased on overweighting of a single outlier study that is more than 15 years old.โ€ He added the paper contained โ€œsome apparent sloppy errors, like previous papers by Professor Tol.โ€28โ€œMore flaws in estimates of the economic impacts of climate change,โ€ The London School of Economics and Political Science, February 7, 2018. Archived February 16, 2018. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/Fzphl

October 2016

Richard Tol authored a new paper titled โ€œThe Structure of the Climate Debateโ€ which he claimed, on Twitter, โ€œsailed through peer review.โ€29Richard S.J. Tol. โ€œThe Structure of the Climate Debate,โ€Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Retrieved from IDEAS. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/2nnSm 30Richard Tol. โ€œMy paper on the structure of the climate debate just sailed through peer review,โ€ Tweet by @RichardTol, October 11, 2016. Retrieved from Twitter.com. Archived .png on file at DeSmog.

View the complete PDF for the working paper of โ€œStructure of the Climate Debateโ€ here.31Working Paper Series No. 96-2016: The Structure of the Climate Debateโ€ (PDF), University of Sussex Department of Economics, August 19, 2016. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.

My paper on the structure of the climate debate just sailed through peer review (tweet)

The Abstract for the paper reads:

โ€œFirst-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to climate policy have attacked the weaknesses in climate research. The climate debate is convoluted and polarized as a result, and climate policy complex. Climate policy should become easier and more rational as the Paris Agreement has shifted climate policy back towards national governments. Changing political priorities, austerity, and a maturing bureaucracy should lead to a more constructive climate debate.โ€32Working Paper Series No. 96-2016: The Structure of the Climate Debateโ€ (PDF), University of Sussex Department of Economics, August 19, 2016. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.

Writing in the working paper, Tol announces that a carbon tax is all that we need to combat climate change:33Working Paper Series No. 96-2016: The Structure of the Climate Debateโ€ (PDF), University of Sussex Department of Economics, August 19, 2016. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.

โ€œ[C]limate change is a relatively small problem that can easily be solved: We just need a modest carbon tax.โ€

โ€[โ€ฆ] First-best climate policy is simple: A uniform carbon tax, rising steadily over time, is all we need.โ€

Tol’s paper was accepted to the journal Energy Policy on January 5, 2017 and later published online on January 11, 2017.34Richard S.J. Tol. โ€œThe structure of the climate debate,โ€ Energy Policy, January 11, 2017. Retrieved from ScienceDirect. Archived January 11, 2017. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/Iw3b5

May 2, 2016

Richard Tol was listed among โ€œKey Scientistsโ€ appearing in Marc Morano‘s movie, Climate Hustle. The full list included the following:35โ€œBackground on Key Scientists Appearing in Climate Hustleโ€ (PDF), ClimateHustle.org. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

Marc Morano’s Climate Hustle was released in U.S. theatres on May 2, 2016. Bill Nye described it as โ€œnot in our national interest and the worldโ€™s interest.โ€36โ€œ‘Climate Hustle’ debuts as skeptics take on global-warming ‘consensus’,โ€ The Washington Times, May 1, 2016. Archived August 26, 2016. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/XtLXp

The film was produced by the Committee for Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and CDRCommunications. As noted at Desmog’s project, ClimateHustler.org, CFACT has received funding from ExxonMobil, Chevron, as well as hundreds of thousands of dollars from foundations associated with Richard Mellon Scaife. CFACT has also received at least $7.8 million in โ€œdark moneyโ€ through DonorsTrust and Donors Capital Fund.37โ€œBackground on Climate Hustle Host and Producers,โ€ ClimateHustle.org. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog. 38Homepage, Climatehustler.org. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/NB9qn

CDR Communications was behind the 2010 video by the Cornwall Alliance titled Resisting the Green Dragon, which claimed environmentalism was a โ€œfalse religionโ€ and a โ€œglobal governmentโ€ power grab. Chris Rogers of CDR Communictions is also chairman of The James Partnership, the umbrella arm that includes the Cornwall Alliance as one of its projects and pays the salary of Calvin Beisner, Cornwallโ€™s founder and spokesperson.39Graham Readfearn. โ€œThe Evangelical Christian Climate Deniers Behind Marc Moranoโ€™s Climate Hustle Documentary,โ€ Desmog, November 19, 2015.

Climate Hustle initially premiered on December 7, 2015 in Paris, France during the COP21 United Nations summit on climate change.40Matthew Kasper, โ€œClimate Hustle, Latest Global Warming Denial Documentary, Set For World Premiere In Paris During COP21,โ€ Republic Report, November 13, 2015. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/s7OHs 41โ€œClimate Hustle,โ€ SourceWatch, accessed November 14, 2015. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/bOG35

โ€œWe are putting together what I think is the most comprehensive, unique, entertaining and humorous climate documentary that has ever been done or attempted,โ€ Morano had said before the film was released.42Graham Readfearn. โ€œMarc Morano’s Climate Hustle Film Set For Paris Premiere With Same Old Denial Myths,โ€ Desmog, November 12, 2015.

โ€œThe reason that this is a unique film,โ€ Morano has said, โ€œis that we are going for a pop culture-friendlyโ€ฆ sarcastic approach and we actually give both sides in this movie.โ€43Graham Readfearn. โ€œMarc Morano’s Climate Hustle Film Set For Paris Premiere With Same Old Denial Myths,โ€ Desmog, November 12, 2015.

In an interview with Ezra Levant, Morano said:

โ€œI am not interviewing a lot of the main climate sceptical scientists because I feel like they have been interviewed by many other people and their stories have been told. I am trying to find another layer of scientist whose stories have not been out there yet. You will see a lot of new names in this.โ€44Graham Readfearn. โ€œMarc Morano’s Climate Hustle Film Set For Paris Premiere With Same Old Denial Myths,โ€ Desmog, November 12, 2015.

See a preview of the film below:

At the Paris premier of the film, reporters from Desmog and the Irish Times were denied entrance after having their RSVPs accepted days earlier.45Graham Readfearn. โ€œThe Fakery of the Paris โ€˜Red Carpetโ€™ Premiere of Marc Moranoโ€™s Climate Hustle Film,โ€ Desmog, December 30, 2015.

April 2016

Richard Tol was one of several witnesses sponsored by Peabody Energy, fighting a legal case on Minnesota’s Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). Peabody Energy’s list of skeptical scientists included the following:46John Mashey. โ€œPeabody’s Outlier Gang Couldn’t Shoot Straight In Minnesota Carbon Case, Judge Rebuffs Happer, Lindzen, Spencer, Mendelsohn, Bezdek,โ€ Desmog, June 7, 2016.

DeSmog reviewed the case findings, and reported how the arguments presented by Peabody were rejected by the Administrative Law Judge (ALJ). Some of Peabody’s central โ€œscientificโ€ arguments, as commented on by The ALJ in findings documents, were as follows:47โ€œRe: In the Matter of the Further Investigation into Environmental and Socioeconomic Costs Under Minn. Stat. ยง 216B.2422, Subd. 3โ€ (PDF), April 12, 2016. PDF archived at DeSmog.

p.18 โ€œPeabody asserted that significant climate change is not occurring or, to the extent climate change is occurring, it is not due to anthropogenic causes. Furthermore, Peabody insisted that any current warming and increased CO2 in the Earthโ€™s atmosphere are beneficial. Based on its position on climate change, Peabody maintained that the externality value of CO2 would most accurately be set at or below zero.โ€ฆโ€

p.31 โ€œThe Administrative Law Judge concludes that Peabody Energy has failed to demonstrate, by a preponderance of the evidence, that climate change is not occurring or, to the extent climate change is occurring, the warming and increased CO2 in the Earthโ€™s atmosphere are beneficial.โ€

The Judge ruled unambiguously against Peabody, as reported Bloomberg BNA.48โ€œALJ: Minnesota Should Use Federal Costs of Carbon in Decisions,โ€ Bloomberg BNA, April 20, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. The Guardian also suggested a number of reasons that Peabody Energy lost the case, including Richard Lindzen‘s own admission that the case hinged on ignoring the IPCC expert consensus, and instead listening to contrarian science:49โ€œCoal made its best case against climate change, and lost,โ€ The Guardian, May 11, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. WebCite URL: http://www.webcitation.org/6iaIFgvfV

โ€œAll of this [opposition] testimony is flawed to the extent it simply relies on โ€ฆ predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [โ€ฆ] today the best evidence indicates that โ€ฆ a much lower climate sensitivity value of 1ยฐC or 1.5ยฐC is correct [โ€ฆ]โ€50โ€œCoal made its best case against climate change, and lost,โ€ The Guardian, May 11, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. WebCite URL: http://www.webcitation.org/6iaIFgvfV

โ€œPeabodyโ€™s scientists made errors that were easy to identify and point out to the Judge. Furthermore, the Judge was smart, quickly able to see through nonsense non-science,โ€ The Guardian reports. โ€œFor those of you that read the report, youโ€™ll notice that the Peabody side made claims about the natural variability of Earthโ€™s climate, about Earth temperature changes, and about extreme weather events.โ€51โ€œPeabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case,โ€ The Guardian, May 2, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. WebCite URL: http://www.webcitation.org/6iaIuPszO

Some notable judicial conclusions were as follows, reports The Guardian:52โ€œPeabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case,โ€ The Guardian, May 2, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. WebCite URL: http://www.webcitation.org/6iaIuPszO

โ€œ22. The Administrative Law Judge concludes that Peabody failed to demonstrate that an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1 or 1.5ยฐC is correct.โ€

โ€œ23. The Administrative Law Judge concludes that the climate sensitivity is reasonably considered to be in the 2-4.5ยฐC range.โ€

โ€œ47. The Administrative Law Judge concludes that Peabody failed to demonstrate that the relied upon process is neither peer-reviewed nor transparent.โ€53โ€œPeabody coal’s contrarian scientist witnesses lose their court case,โ€ The Guardian, May 2, 2016. Archived June 27, 2016. WebCite URL: http://www.webcitation.org/6iaIuPszO

December 7, 2015

Richard Tol appears as a โ€œKey Scientistโ€ in Marc Moranoโ€™s documentary film, Climate Hustle, which debuted on December 7, 2015, in Paris, France during the COP21 United Nations summit on climate change.54โ€œBackground on Key Scientists Appearing in Climate Hustleโ€ (PDF), ClimateHustle.org. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog. The film chiefly showcases Morano’s personality, a range of discredited scientists, and no new factual information about climate change.

Other notable โ€œKey Scientistsโ€ featured in Climate Hustle include:55โ€œBackground on Key Scientists Appearing in Climate Hustleโ€ (PDF), ClimateHustle.org. Archived .pdf on file at Desmog.

March 2015

Tol launches a further attack on a paper by John Cook, climate change communications fellow at the University of Queensland, which appeared in the journal Environmental Research Letters and found that 97 per cent of scientific research published on global warming endorsed the view that it was primarily caused by humans. Writing in The Australian newspaper Tol repeated points previously debunked by Cook and his fellow authors.

Tol claimed:

If you want to believe climate researchers are incompetent, biased and secretive, Cookโ€™s paper is an excellent case in point.

In a response, also published in The Australian, Cook wrote:

Every criticism of our research has avoided the fact that the actual scientists who authored the scientific papers independently confirmed the 97 per cent consensus. This includes a piece in these pages by Richard Tol. He attacks our research using analysis that has been shown to be flawed, as explained shortly; and while arguing against our abstract ratings, his critique has no rebuttal to the self-ratings that also found 97 per cent agreement. An obsession with minutiae that do not affect the final result while ignoring the broader picture is common by those denying the consensus on climate change.

March 2015

From mid 2014 until January 2015, Tol issued a series of complaints against UK-based newspaper The Guardian over six stories which featured him. Tol initially referred his complaints to the UK’s Press Complaints Commission, but over the course of the complaints being dealt with, the PCC was disbanded to be replaced by a new body.

In evidence given to the US House Science Committee in May 2014, Told claimed that โ€œstaff of the London School of Economics (LSE) and the Guardian now routinely tell lies about me and my workโ€. Tol’s reference to the LSE relates to a public row Tol had been engaged in with Bob Ward, the communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

Ward had published some of his criticisms of Tol’s work in The Guardian. Other Guardian bloggers, including scientists John Abraham, Skeptical Science blogger Dana Nuccitelli and DeSmog contributor Graham Readfearn had also written articles critical of Tol or his work.

The Guardian launched an internal inuiry to deal with Tol’s complaints about the six stories and published its findings in March 2015. The Guardian rejected all Tol’s complaints in relation to five of the stories, but said that the word โ€œriddledโ€ should be replaced with the words โ€œa number ofโ€ in one of the stories. After the finding, Tol continued to describe The Guardian as conducting a โ€œsmear campaignโ€.

July 9, 2014

Tol delivers a speech at an event held organised by UK climate denial group Repeal the Act and held in a room at the UK’s House of Commons thanks to support from Northern Ireland MP Sammy Wilson, who does not accept that human activities can change the climate.

The meeting was attended by a number of climate sceptic MPs and figures, including independent weather โ€œforecasterโ€ Piers Corbyn, who also believes the science linking CO2 to climate change is โ€œdelusional nonsenseโ€.

A report from the meeting, published on DeSmog, found Tol accepted as โ€œfairโ€ a suggestion that rising sea levels might be mainly driven by the sun or natural processes.

June 2014

The journal Energy Policy published a paper from Richard Tol attacking a finding that 97 per cent of climate change studies agreed global warming was mostly human caused. Tol claimed the finding, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters (ERL), โ€œdoes not stand.โ€

A DeSmog report found that Tol had first pledged to attack the ERL paper almost a year earlier. His paper was rejected by at least three journals, including ERL, where Tol sent several drafts of his paper before it was finally rejected.

Reviewers who saw earlier drafts said Tol had identified โ€œno serious flawsโ€ in the ERL paper and made some claims that were โ€œnot supported by the authorโ€™s analysesโ€.

The original authors, led by John Cook, of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland and founder of the Skeptical Science website, analysed Tol’s paper and said they had found he had made 24 errors.

The authors pointed out that Tol agreed that a scientific consensus on the cause of climate change existed and that when correcting Tol’s alleged error, his own analysis provided an almost identical percentage (97.2 per cent) to their own.

May 2014

Two academic journals issue corrections to two papers by Tol which had both argued that global economic impacts from climate change would be positive if warming remained at around 1C, with longer term economic impacts of warming also being low.

In the Spring 2009 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Tol wrote that โ€œgremlins intervened in the preparation of my paperโ€. Retraction Watch reported how Tol had dropped minus signs from some of his analysis of other papers referenced in his original.

Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, analysed Tol’s โ€œgremlinsโ€ for the Washington Post and found further issues, in particular with the conclusions Tol had drawn from his own work.

Both studies helped shape the conclusions of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Working Group Two chapter covering economic impacts of climate change.

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the London School of Economics Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, wrote in The Guardian that a sentence in that chapter suggesting climate change could be โ€œbeneficialโ€ under moderate warming had been dropped becuase it had been based on โ€œfaulty dataโ€ from studies by Tol.

May 2014

Tol appears as a witness on a Republican-controlled House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology hearing to โ€œevaluateโ€ the processes behind the IPCC’s fifth round of reports into the science and impacts of climate change.

In his written evidence, Tol alleged that IPCC authors were โ€œselected on concern as well as competenceโ€ and that the reports suffered from an โ€œalarmist biasโ€. Tol also claimed that The Guardian newspaper โ€œroutinely tell lies about me and my workโ€ – an attack which appeared to be based on a number of articles the newspaper had published critical of Tol’s work.

When giving oral evidence, Tol also attacked research which had found that 97 per cent of science papers published since 1991 agreed that humans were a main cause of global warming. Tol said:

The 97 per cent estimate is bandied about by almost everybody. I had a close look at what this study really did and as far as I can see the study just crumbles when you touch it. None of the statements in the papers is supported by any data that is actually in the papers. It is pretty clear that most of the science agrees that climate change is real and most likely human made, but this 97 per cent is essentially pulled from thin air โ€“ itโ€™s not based on any credible research whatsoever.

April 2014

Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the London School of Economics Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, writes a detailed analysis of Tol’s published work relating to the economic impacts of climate change. Ward identifies a number of errors which had the effect of lowering the economic costs of climate change in two of Tol’s journal papers.

In an article in the UK newspaper The Mail on Sunday, Tol accused Ward of conducting a โ€œsmear campaignโ€ against him.

March 2014

It is revealed that Richard Tol had, the previous September, withdrawn as a co-author of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change โ€œSummary for Policymakersโ€ report after accusing the group of being too alarmist.

March 18, 2013

Richard Tol publishes an article in the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control titled, โ€œTargets for global climate policy: An overview,โ€ shared by Tol and Bjรธrn Lomborg on Anthony Wattsโ€™ Watts Up With That? webpage. Tolโ€™s piece is considered by some โ€œas a definitive summary of what economics has to say about climate change.โ€56โ€œRichard Tol on climate policy – A critical view of an overview,โ€ Dr. Frank Ackerman, July 21, 2014. Archived August 12, 2014.

The article became โ€œa central building blockโ€ in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeโ€™s 2014 Fifth Assessment Report, Chapter 10, Working Group 2 report, โ€œwith some of its numbers appearing in the Working Group 2 Summary for Policymakers.โ€57โ€œRichard Tol on climate policy – A critical view of an overview,โ€ Dr. Frank Ackerman, July 21, 2014. Archived August 12, 2014.

October 2011

Economist Frank Ackerman co-authors a working paper published by his employer the Stockholm Environment Institute, an independent environmental research institute funded by the Swedish Government, analysing and criticising aspects of a economic model co-developed by Richard Tol.

The working paper is published the following year in the journal Ecological Economics. The journal also publishes a response from Tol.

Tol goes to extreme lengths to have the working paper and, later, the peer reviewed paper, withdrawn. Tol writes to Ackerman’s employers (SEI) and when Ackerman moves jobs, Tol writes to his new employer.

At a dedicated webpage covering the Tol Controversy, Ackerman details how Tol also wrote to the Vice-Chancellor of Stockholm University, the Swedish Royal Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Swedish Minister of Environment, and the Minister of Education.

In some letters, Tol accuses Ackerman of โ€œlibelโ€ and โ€œdefamationโ€. Despite Tol’s extensive complaints, no actual legal action was taken by Tol.

Commenting on the affair, Ackerman writes:

He has written to my employers and publishers, accusing me of libel for writing this technical article. This is a false accusation of a serious offense, no longer just an academic disagreement. It has gone far beyond the bounds of acceptable debate.

2007

Richard Tol is a โ€œshared winnerโ€ of the Nobel Peace Price with Al Gore and other IPCC members.58โ€œProf Richard Tol,โ€ Department of Economics, University of Sussex. Archived August 8, 2014. 59โ€œRichard Tol – Climate economist, unafraid to fight,โ€ Road to Paris. Archived August 8, 2014.

Affiliations

Social Media

Publications

According to Skeptical Science, โ€œthere are no peer-reviewed climate papers by Richard Tolโ€ however, Professor Tol has published extensively on economic issues related to climayte change and climate and energy policy.66โ€œPeer-reviewed skeptic papers by Richard Tol,โ€ Skeptical Science. Archived August 12, 2014

View a list of Richard Tolโ€™s published work on Google Scholar.

Other Resources

Resources

Related Profiles

Richard Lindzen Credentials Ph.D., Applied Mathematics, Harvard University (1964).โ€œCurriculum Vitae: Richard Siegmund Lindzenโ€ (PDF), MIT, February 10, 2010. Archived .pdf on file at&n...
Richard A. Epstein Credentials LL.B. Yale Law School (1968)โ€œRichard A. Epstein,โ€ Hoover Institution. Archived April 24, 2020. Archive URL: https://archive.vn/wip/n0pp9 B.A. Law...
Image credit: Screengrab from BBC. Richard Tice Credentials Uppingham School.Richard Tice. โ€œAcademies: a model education,โ€ Reform, February 2008. Archived June 12, 2018. Archived .p...
Roy W. Spencer Credentials Ph.D., M.S. Meteorology, University of Wisconsin-Madison (1980, 1981)."About," Drroyspencer.com. Archived September 6, 2016. Archive.is URL: https://archive.is/YP...