Net Zero Scrutiny Group

Background

The Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG) is made up of backbench Conservative MPs, including former government ministers, and opposes many of the government’s net zero policies. The NZSG was formed in 2021 ahead of the UN COP26 climate summit, hosted by the UK in Glasgow, Scotland, and publicly launched in January 2022.

The NZSG claims to accept climate science, but the group has a number of strong institutional links with the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), the UK’s most prominent climate science denial organisation.

The NZSG is led by chair Craig Mackinlay and founder Steve Baker.

Mackinlay, who employs the GWPF’s head of policy Harry Wilkinson as a parliamentary aide, has said that the government should “pause for breath before running further and faster to a net-zero electoral disaster based upon uncosted fairytales”.¹

Baker was a trustee of the GWPF from May 2021² to September 8, 2022, when he stepped down the day after his appointment as Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office.³ He is a vocal critic of the government’s net zero policies, telling Sky News in a January 2022 interview that he “genuinely believe[s] that when the full costs of net zero start hitting us, if people have never been given a choice at the ballot box, we could end up with something bigger than the poll tax, certainly bigger than Brexit, because the numbers of people hit by it and their inability to cope will be huge”.⁴

In August 2021, Mackinlay indicated that the Net Zero Scrutiny Group would use research by the GWPF in its campaign.⁵

NZSG members also have close ties to the Brexit-backing Conservative parliamentary group the European Research Group (ERG); the free-market Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA); and anti-fuel duty lobbying group FairFuelUK.

In January 2022, 20 NZSG members wrote a letter to the Telegraph calling for prime minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak to lessen the impact of inflation and “cost-of-living pressures” by removing VAT and environmental levies on domestic energy.⁶

The letter, which was the first major media intervention by the NZSG, claimed that the “Climate Change Levy on business energy use” was “making UK energy-intensive businesses uncompetitive” and called for a “new approach to our energy security,” meaning increased North Sea exploration for oil and gas and support for fracking.⁷

In February 2022, the Telegraph reported that 29 MPs and one Conservative peer had written a letter to Prime Minister Boris Johnson calling on him to end the “unconservative” ban on fracking in the UK, which has been in place since 2019.⁸

The letter was organised by Mackinlay and Baker and reportedly signed by NZSG members including Julian Knight, as well as former Brexit Minister David Frost.⁹ The Guardian reported that Mackinlay and Baker declined to share the names of other signatories.¹⁰

Stance on Climate Change

While the NZSG reportedly accepts the “fundamental facts” of climate change and the need to reduce emissions, the group argues that the government’s plans to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 are too rapid and expensive.¹¹ ¹²

NZSG chair Craig Mackinlay was quoted in The Times in August 2021 saying: “I am not a climate-change denier. I’m concerned that our electors of the future will be huddling round their heat-pump radiators and paying off the debt on an electric vehicle they never wanted either as they look wistfully at China, Indonesia and other nations still enjoying cheap energy from some of the dirtiest fossil fuels.”¹³

At a Conservative Party conference event in October 2021, hosted by the libertarian Institute of Economic Affairs, NZSG leader Steve Baker said that “a lot of the [climate] science is absolutely settled,” acknowledging that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that “we’ve emitted plenty of it”. However, Baker added that a lot of climate science is “actually still contestable” and is “sometimes propagandised”, stating that some of the scenarios produced by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are “implausible”.

Philip Davies, NZSG member and one of only five MPs to vote against the UK’s Climate Change Act in 2008, sent a letter to his constituents just before the UK government hosted the 2021 COP26 climate summit in Glasgow criticising the government’s net zero plans. He wrote that the UK’s net-zero climate targets will “make no difference at all” and called them “virtue signalling gesture politics”.¹⁴ ¹⁵

Lord Peter Lilley, a former GWPF trustee and another of the five MPs to vote against the UK’s Climate Change Act in 2008, is also a member of the NZSG. In 2021, Lilley – a self-proclaimed “lukewarmist”, spoke to the Independent about concerns from climate campaigners about his appointment to the Lords’ Environment and Climate Change Committee, saying: “I am amused at how alarmed the alarmists are about someone being appointed to a committee on climate change who entirely accepts the science of global warming and may ask inconvenient questions about what scientific evidence there is for alarmist claims!”¹⁶ ¹⁷

Despite tweeting that he is a “huge supporter of #NetZero”, in March 2021 NZSG member Mark Jenkinson, MP for Workington, said to colleagues in a private chat that the government had “bowed to climate terrorists” after its decision to order a public inquiry into the controversial Cumbia coal mine project, according to reporting by The Sun. Jenkinson later shared a statement that called the decision a “capitulation to climate alarmists”.¹⁸ ¹⁹ ²⁰

Some NZSG members appear to support the current government’s policies on climate change, including NZSG member Damien Moore, MP for Southport, who wrote in 2020: “The UK Government has decided to become the world leader in low cost clean power generation – cheaper than coal and gas; and we believe that in ten years’ time offshore wind will be powering every home in the country.”²¹

Craig Tracey, MP for North Warwickshire, appears to support the government’s climate policies thus far, writing on his website that “tackling climate change is at the forefront of many people’s minds” and that he is “pleased this is being taken extremely seriously by the government”.²²

Anne Marie Morris, MP for Newton Abbot, has written strongly in support of climate policies, including cutting coal use for energy and increasing renewable energy capacity, and has called for requirements to install solar panels on new industrial buildings and the installation of charging points for electric vehicles.²³

Key People

Members

The NZSG has never published a full list of members. The following list of members is based on signatories of an open letter in favour of fracking organised by the NZSG in February 2022:²⁴

Craig Mackinlay MP
Steve Baker MP
Esther McVey MP
Robert Halfon MP
Julian Knight MP
Anne Marie Morris MP
Andrew Bridgen MP
David Jones MP
Scott Benton MP
Damien Moore MP
Mark Jenkinson MP
Andrew Lewer MP
Karl McCartney MP
Marcus Fysh MP
Lee Anderson MP
Philip Davies MP – GB News host.
Greg Smith MP
Adam Holloway MP
Craig Tracey MP
Lord Peter Lilley
John Whittigdale MP
Bob Blackman MP – 1922 committee executive secretary
Lord David Frost – advisory board member of the GWPF and former Brexit secretary.

Political Supporters

This includes MPs and members of the House of Lords, not published in the previous list, whose support for NZSG was revealed in an open letter calling to pull back the UK’s emissions trading system (ETS) organised by NZSG in June 2023.²⁵

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP – GB News host and former minister for Brexit Opportunities.
Lord David Frost – former Brexit minister and GWPF advisory board member.
Iain Duncan Smith MP – founder of the Centre for social justice.
Andrea Jenkyns MP – also a GWPF advisory board member.
Miriam Cates MP – spoke at the National Conservatism Conference 2023 and ARC advisory board member.
Sir John Redwood MP
Jack Brereton MP
Robert Syms MP
Mark Francois MP
David Jones MP
Jonathan Gullis MP
Bob Seely MP
Holly Mumby-Croft MP
Chris Green MP
Kelly Tolhurst MP
Phillip Hollobone MP
Marco Longhi MP
Sammy Wilson MP
Lord Daniel Moylan
Baroness Ruth Lea
Lord Ian Macpherson
Baroness Jacqueline Foster

Related individuals

This includes supporters of the NZSG who do not currently sit in parliament:

Lord Nigel Lawson – founder and honorary president of the GWPF.
Neil Record – chairman of the Global Warming Policy Forum (recently rebranded as Net Zero Watch), campaign arm of the Global Warming Policy Foundation; chairman of the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA); donor to Steve Baker.
Harry Wilkinson – head of policy for the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) and Net Zero Watch (NZW); parliamentary aide to Craig Mackinlay.

Actions

June 28, 2023

In a letter published in The Telegraph, NZSG supporters called for the UK’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) to be pulled back in the name of “British energy security,” and to ensure that “ETS does not put British industry out of business.”²⁶

The letter claimed that “While the ETS was intended to encourage industry to decarbonise, costs have spiralled in an unsustainable way.”

The letter was signed by the following NSZG supporters:

Craig Mackinlay MP (Con)
Sir Iain Duncan-Smith MP (Con)
Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (Con)
Lord Frost (Con)
Esther McVey MP (Con)
Sir John Redwood (Con)
Dame Andrea Jenkyns (Con)
Sir Robert Syms (Con)
Mark Francois (Con)
David Jones (Con)
Kelly Tolhurst (Con)
Sammy Wilson (DUP)
Andrew Lewer (Con)
Jack Brereton (Con)
Miriam Cates (Con)
Chris Green (Con)
Jonathan Gullis (Con)
Philip Hollobone (Con)
Adam Holloway (Con)
Julian Knight (Ind)
Marco Longhi (Con)
Karl McCartney (Con)
Holly Mumby-Croft (Con)
Philip Davies (Con)
Bob Seely (Con)
Greg Smith (Con)
Andrew Bridgen (Reclaim)
Scott Benton (Ind)
Baroness Foster of Oxton (Con)
Baroness Lea of Lymm (Con)
Lord Lilley (Con)
Lord Moylan (Con)
Lord Strathcarron (Con)

This includes a number of high-profile people connected to climate denial organisations who have not previously signed NSZG letters: Jacob Rees-Mogg, John Redwood, Andrea Jenkyns, Miriam Cates and Iain Duncan-Smith among others.

March 28, 2023

In an article published in The Telegraph, a number of NZSG members criticised the UK’s net zero plans, and including the ban of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030, following a last-minute EU decision to allow “e-fuels” to be sold beyond the 2040 internal combustion engine ban date. NZSG supporters and members Philip Davies, John Redwood, Greg Smith and Iain Duncan Smith argued for the 2030 deadline to be pushed back, and to allow the sale of internal combustion engines running on e-fuels.²⁷

Philip Davies, who is also a presenter on GB News, called the 2030 deadline “idiotic,” adding “it’s a devil when you’re getting more common sense out of the EU than you are the UK Government.”

John Redwood, who signed a NZSG letter in 2023, said “The Government needs to listen to the Germans and take advice on this. The more permissive an economy is, and the fewer bans there are, the better to promote growth.”

Greg Smith, who is also a member of the transport select committee said:

“The 2030 ambition isn’t realistic in the first place and we need the innovators and the automotive companies to be given the time and space to produce new technologies and solutions, not just jump the betamax that’s available now.”

Iain Duncan Smith, Former conservative leader who signed a NZSG open letter in 2023, said: “The 2030 deadline for the elimination of petrol and diesel engine cars in the UK is simply not achievable. Unless we delay, we hand a massive boost to the Chinese car manufacturers. They are already dominant.”

September 4, 2022

In a letter published by The Telegraph, members of the NZSG wrote that fracking should be restarted in the UK, and argued that gas projects should be “fast-tracked” through the government planning system in light of the energy crisis.²⁸

The letter stated that “Energy prices are soaring while 1,300 trillion cubic feet of shale gas sits idle under our feet” and claimed that ten percent of that amount “would give the UK self-sufficiency for 50 years”.

The letter continued:

“By not using British shale gas resources, we’re missing out on tens of thousands of well-paid jobs, losing billions from the UK economy while enriching foreign exchequers, depriving councils and residents of millions of pounds of tax revenue, and putting our country at the mercy of a Russia-dominated European gas market as we all scrabble for the same limited resource.”

The letter was signed by the following NZSG members:

Craig Mackinlay MP (Con)
Esther McVey MP (Con)
Lord Frost (Con)
Julian Knight MP (Con)
Huw Merriman MP (Con)
Bob Blackman MP (Con)
Sir Robert Syms MP (Con)
Lee Anderson MP (Con)
Andrew Bridgen MP (Con)
Anne-Marie Morris MP (Con)
Adam Holloway MP (Con)
Greg Smith MP (Con)
Andrew Lewer MP (Con)
Philip Davies MP (Con)
David Warburton MP (Con)
Richard Drax MP (Con)
Baroness Foster of Oxton (Con)
Lord Borwick (Con)
Adam Afriyie MP (Con)
Laurence Robertson MP (Con)

The Baroness Foster and Lord Borwick, as well as MPs Merriman, Syms, Warburton, Drax, Robertson, Afriyie, had not previously been publicly named as signatories of letters penned by the NZSG.

February 16, 2022

DeSmog revealed that Mackinlay had recently hired GWPF and Net Zero Watch Head of Policy Harry Wilkinson to work as a parliamentary aide, and had been employing former GWPF trustee Ruth Lea since at least 2017.

Speaking to POLITICO about the hiring, Mackinlay said that Wilkinson’s continuing employment with Net Zero Watch “is fully disclosed according to parliamentary rules applying to MPs’ employees and his depth of knowledge acquired there is invaluable to my interest and work on net zero issues.”²⁹

Mackinlay also told POLITICO that Lea’s work with the GWPF “was wholly unconnected to her original appointment with me and is not related to her continuation as a passholder now. She is largely retired these days and she comes to parliament infrequently.”

February 12, 2022

The Telegraph reported that 29 MPs and one Conservative peer had written a letter to prime minister Boris Johnson calling on him to end the “unconservative” ban on fracking in the UK, which has been in place since 2019.³⁰

The letter was organised by Craig Mackinlay and Steve Baker and reportedly signed by NZSG members including Mackinlay, Baker, and Julian Knight. The Guardian reported that Mackinlay and Baker declined to share the names of other signatories.³¹

The letter argued that restarting fracking in the UK would “allow us to combat the cost of living crisis, level up, create jobs, opportunity and a renewed sense of community in the north, improve our energy security, reduce our reliance on imported gas, stabilise energy prices and achieve net zero without increasing the cost of living for already hard-pressed working families.”³²

The letter was also signed by Lord Frost, the former Brexit minister; John Whittingdale, the former culture secretary; and Bob Blackman, the 1922 committee executive secretary.

January 2, 2022

NZSG members wrote a letter to the Telegraph calling for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak to lessen the impact of inflation and “cost-of-living pressures” by removing VAT and environmental levies on domestic energy.³³

The letter claimed that the “Climate Change Levy on business energy use” was “making UK energy-intensive businesses uncompetitive” and called for a “new approach to our energy security,” meaning increased North Sea exploration for oil and gas and support for fracking.

The letter’s calls to scrap green levies and back fossil fuels matched two of the key demands of the GWPF’s campaigning wing, Net Zero Watch (NZW). These demands were to “suspend all green levies on energy bills” and “remove all fiscal and other disincentives to oil and gas exploration, including shale gas, to increase domestic production levels”.

The letter was signed by the following NZSG members:

Craig Mackinlay MP
Esther McVey MP
Robert Halfon MP
Steve Baker MP
Julian Knight MP
Anne Marie Morris MP
Andrew Bridgen MP
David Jones MP
Scott Benton MP
Damien Moore MP
Mark Jenkinson MP
Andrew Lewer MP
Karl McCartney MP
Marcus Fysh MP
Lee Anderson MP
Philip Davies MP
Greg Smith MP
Adam Holloway MP
Craig Tracey MP
Lord Peter Lilley

The letter’s publication was the first time a list of members had been made public and listed 19 members, considerably less than the 50 members Mackinlay implied had joined the group in November 2021.³⁴