Like a bad horror movie villain, global cooling is the skeptic meme that just wonโt die. The latest โrespectableโ media figure to perpetrate that myth is Newsweek and The Washington Post columnist George F. Will, who wrote a global warming piece last Sunday that was roundly denounced by scientists and bloggers alike for its gross factualย errors.
The Wonk Roomโs Brad Johnson has been doing yeomanโs work cataloguing the many obvious inaccuracies over the last few days โ you can see the latest tally here, courtesy of Think Progress โ even going so far as to offer Willโs editors, who have yet to issue an apology or revise the original column, a perfectly acceptable correction.
While I would expect such antics from Will, a well-known conservative and global warming skeptic, I find it deeply disturbing, albeit not entirely surprising, that the editorial board of one of the countryโs most prominent newspapers would refuse to admit such a flagrant mistake โ let alone publish such garbage in the first place โ and issue an immediate correction. I understand that many media โelitesโ still bristle at the notion that blogging has become a respectable platform โ hence their well-worn aversion to responding to criticisms from bloggers โ but ignoring actual scientific evidence smacks of journalistic FAIL.
Putting aside the know-nothing cranks like George Will, my other big complaint about global warming coverage has been the mediaโs near myopic on providing so-called โbalanceโ โ the misguided notion that, for every article about the impacts of climate change, there should be another one questioning the consensus (preferably citing the likes of Bjorn Lomborg, John Coleman, and their fellow travelers at the American Enterprise Institute and the National Association ofย Manufacturers).
Though things as a whole have vastly improved in recent years, many reporters continue to struggle with this idea โ some more so than most, of course โ while others, lacking the requisite knowledge or simply chasing the latest headlines, fail to do the science justice. Now while I donโt expect all environmental reporters to have post-graduate degrees in climate science, they should be knowledgeable enough to provide some context and background when writing about the latest Nature study (Timeโs Eric Pooley wrote a great piece about this).
As much as I wish it werenโt so, George Will is hardly the first writer to touch on global cooling in recent months. Joe Romm and the Real Climate team have blogged at length about the mediaโs tendency to seize on short-term weather or climate patterns โ a brief cold spell here, an extremely warm period there โ and make grand predictions or statements about climateย change.
Last year, skeptics so hyped up reports showing that January had been slightly colder than usual that many reporters, including thoughtful ones such as The New York Timesโ Andrew Revkin, felt compelled to write about it. Never mind the fact that a single blip in a decades-long process is hardly worth the mention โ even if it happens to follow the warmest blip onย record.
Which is why I had to laugh when I read Rommโs post, entitled, โBreaking news: Unprecedented global warming in past year.โ While it did end on a serious note, this post is a perfect encapsulation of the breathless, short-sighted coverage we often see in the mainstream media. Instead of explaining the larger trends, or at least providing some context, a reporter might simply hone in on the numbers: a 0.37ยฐC year on year temperature rise, or 20 times the annual rate of warming in recentย decades.
Leaving aside the jokey elements here, Romm does use these numbers to make a larger point about the predicted long-term global warmingย trends:
โI should note that the National Climatic Data Center has this as the 7th warmest January (see here), with year-over-year warming of โonlyโย 0.35ยฐC.
Note also that we are still experiencing La Niรฑa conditions, which tend to slightly cool globalย temperatures.
Now what could really make this a genuinely serious emerging storyline is that in the summer of 2007, the Hadley Center made some interesting near-term predictions in Science (see โClimate Forecast: Hot โ and then Very Hotโ). They pointed out that in addition to the steady increase in anthropogenic warming from greenhouse gases you have to add a smaller variation from climate oscillations linked to the oceans. Those oscillations have been tamping down temperatures a tad, and may keep doing so for the next year or so, but the decade of the 2010s is going to bring a return to record-smashingย temperatures.โ
To put it more bluntly: While we always want to avoid making a mountain out of a molehill, the media needs to recognize two critical facts: a) global cooling doesnโt exist, and b) one month, or year, of slightly unusual temperatures does not a trend make. We know global warming is real because it is a decades-long process that has been well-documented and studied over the lastย half-century.
Despite what the skeptics would have you believe, there isnโt, and never was, a cooling โconsensus.โ Studies published during the 1970s that predicted a period of intense cooling โ a mini-ice age of sorts โ were quickly disproven with the arrival of better, more accurate data. Citing those studies grossly misrepresents the state of modern climate science, since โ and I know this will shock some people โ researchersโ understanding of these processes have radically changed since theย 70s.
The next time you try to mislead your readers, George, make sure your โevidenceโ is up toย date.
This month weโre giving away FREE copies Nobel Laureate Dr. Andrew Weaverโs new book Keeping Our Cool: Canada in a Warmingย World.
Go here to find out more details about DeSmogBlogโs monthly bookย give-away.
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