Since 2010, Teagasc has issued three climate mitigation reports – in 2012, 2018 and the latest in 2023 – that have adopted a so-called “Marginal Abatement Cost Curve” (MACC) approach. This aims to rank the relative cost effectiveness of different measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture and land use sectors.1“Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc report, July 12, 2023. Archived February 7, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
MACC reports primarily recommend voluntary technical measures for farmers to improve the “carbon footprint” (emissions intensity per kg of output) of their milk and livestock production.
Teagasc says that the use of MACCs “helps stakeholders make informed decisions about how to allocate resources for emissions reductions” and “provides insights into the cost effectiveness of different abatement options and helps identify the least costly ways to achieve a given emissions reduction target”.2“Executive Summary: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc web page, July 12, 2023. Archived December 16, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.is/GR69o
However, a research report by Ireland’s Environmental Protection Agency in 2020 noted that MACC analysis methods have been “strongly critiqued” in academic literature, but that “these flaws are often overlooked in policy use of MACC curves”.3McMullin B. and Price, P. R. “Synthesis of Literature and Preliminary Modelling Relevant to Society-wide Scenarios for Effective Climate Change Mitigation in Ireland,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2020. Archived August 9, 2021. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog. Teagasc’s MACC climate mitigation reports do not highlight these issues.
Although not stated in Teagasc’s 2023 MACC executive summary,4“Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc report, July 12, 2023. Archived February 7, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog. Teagasc’s detailed “Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors” report, published in July 2023,5Gary Lanigan, Kevin Hanrahan, Richards, K.G. (editors). “An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030.” Teagasc. July, 2023. Archived October 9, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/X2JmZ confirms that the focus on efficiency measures to improve emissions intensity has in fact enabled an increase in total emissions, primarily due to the expansion of Ireland’s dairy sector since 2010.
The July 2023 report states that: “Increased profitability from the application of the measures … may lead to increased overall production, offsetting some of the expected improvement in emissions intensity. In this case, any reductions … would be partially, or fully negated due to increases in total animal numbers and could even result in an increase of national GHGs.” This section of Teagasc’s report goes on to state “this has occurred in the dairy sector”.6“An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030,” Teagasc, 2023. Archived July 31, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
Official EPA emissions reporting confirms a substantial increase in agricultural emissions since 2010. Ireland’s milk production has increased by over 73 percent relative to 2005, the EU baseline reference year for agricultural emissions.7“Ireland’s National Inventory Report 2024,” EPA, 2024. Archived April 19, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog. There has also been a 52 percent rise in dairy cow numbers in that time period, resulting in a 65 per cent increase in dairy methane emissions.8Price, P. R. “Agricultural Methane in Irish Climate Action: greenhouse gas metrics, methane mitigation, and related quantification of livestock numbers.” Legacy4LIFE Programme, Task 2.2 Report. May 2024. Archived June 18, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
Teagasc’s reporting confirms that any saved emissions that could be ascribed to the MACC measures since 2012 have been more than negated by farmers’ reinvestment of the resultant cost-savings into increasing production. This unintended rebound of MACC measure adoption has contributed to increasing total agricultural sector emissions.9Gary Lanigan, Kevin Hanrahan, Richards, K.G. (editors). “An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030.” Teagasc. July, 2023. Archived October 9, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/X2JmZ
Notably, prior to its reliance on MACC assessments, Teagasc’s studies focused on achieving absolute emissions reductions aligned with meeting the national and EU climate goals. A 2009 Teagasc study found that “even with reduced fertiliser usage and more extensive production practices, a very substantial decrease in the livestock population is required to meet the emission reduction targets by 2020”.10Donnellan, T., Gillespie, P. and Hanrahan, K. “Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets On Agricultural Activity,” 2009. Archived April 2, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
An EPA climate change research report by Dublin City University researchers Barry McMullin and Paul Price noted the mitigation effectiveness of enforced national production limits such as the EU milk quota:
“Over the period from 1998 to 2011, the milk quota ensured that local efficiency increases in dairy production resulted in reduced national Nr [fertiliser nitrogen] usage (and fewer cattle) and lower agricultural GHG emissions. [By contrast, following staged removal of the quota] Irish agri-food policy since 2010 has leveraged increased usage of imported synthetic nitrogen fertiliser and feeds”.11McMullin B. and Price, P. R. “Synthesis of Literature and Preliminary Modelling Relevant to Society-wide Scenarios for Effective Climate Change Mitigation in Ireland,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2020. Archived August 9, 2021. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
Teagasc’s 2023 MACC report states that the government’s goal to cut agricultural emissions 25 percent by 2030 relative to 2018 could be met if farmers widely and voluntarily adopt efficiency measures. Teagasc also aims to support diversification – moving away from pasture farming and instead increasing arable, horticulture, forestry, and energy biomass production.
Aideen O’Dochartaigh, assistant professor in accounting at Dublin City University, told Irish investigative website Noteworthy in 2021 that focusing on emissions intensity (i.e. efficiency) measurements was “a red herring”. She was reported saying “it has been a ‘massive problem’ for years that companies are “increasing their activity while increasing their efficiency and it all cancels out”.12Niall Sargent. “Transparency gap: State bodies holding back company emissions data from the public,” Noteworthy, May 3, 2021. Archived February 6, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/EVCtu
References
- 1“Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc report, July 12, 2023. Archived February 7, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 2“Executive Summary: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc web page, July 12, 2023. Archived December 16, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.is/GR69o
- 3McMullin B. and Price, P. R. “Synthesis of Literature and Preliminary Modelling Relevant to Society-wide Scenarios for Effective Climate Change Mitigation in Ireland,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2020. Archived August 9, 2021. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 4“Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 2023,” Teagasc report, July 12, 2023. Archived February 7, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 5Gary Lanigan, Kevin Hanrahan, Richards, K.G. (editors). “An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030.” Teagasc. July, 2023. Archived October 9, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/X2JmZ
- 6“An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030,” Teagasc, 2023. Archived July 31, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 7“Ireland’s National Inventory Report 2024,” EPA, 2024. Archived April 19, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 8Price, P. R. “Agricultural Methane in Irish Climate Action: greenhouse gas metrics, methane mitigation, and related quantification of livestock numbers.” Legacy4LIFE Programme, Task 2.2 Report. May 2024. Archived June 18, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 9Gary Lanigan, Kevin Hanrahan, Richards, K.G. (editors). “An Updated Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Abatement Potential of the Irish Agriculture and Land-Use Sectors between 2021 and 2030.” Teagasc. July, 2023. Archived October 9, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/X2JmZ
- 10Donnellan, T., Gillespie, P. and Hanrahan, K. “Impact Of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Targets On Agricultural Activity,” 2009. Archived April 2, 2024. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 11McMullin B. and Price, P. R. “Synthesis of Literature and Preliminary Modelling Relevant to Society-wide Scenarios for Effective Climate Change Mitigation in Ireland,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2020. Archived August 9, 2021. Archived .pdf on file at DeSmog.
- 12Niall Sargent. “Transparency gap: State bodies holding back company emissions data from the public,” Noteworthy, May 3, 2021. Archived February 6, 2023. Archive URL: https://archive.ph/EVCtu
