Nicola Scafetta

Credentials

Ph.D., Physics, University of North Texas.¹

Background

Nicola Scafetta is a research scientist at Duke University Physics Department. He is known for proposing a phenomenological theory of climate change, claiming that oscillations induced by solar changes and other astronomical influences can affect climate.

According to his theory, which he presented to the EPA in a presentation titled “Climate Change and its Causes, a Discussion about some Key Issues,” we would be facing an imminent cooling period.²

However, Scafetta’s theory has been disputed by other scientists.³

Stance on Climate Change

May 29, 2012

“At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system.”⁴

Key Quotes

November 24, 2018

During his talk at the 12th conference of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), also billed as the Heartland Institute‘s 13th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC13), Scafetta declared:⁵

“The climate models cannot be considered validated and therefore cannot be used to do prediction of the future.”

March 2008

“If climate is as sensitive to solar changes as the above phenomenological findings suggest, the current anthropogenic contribution to global warming is significantly overestimated.”⁶

Key Deeds

November 24, 2018

Scafetta was listed on the program for the 12th conference of the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE), also billed as the Heartland Institute‘s 13th International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC13). According to a translation of the agenda, he spoke on “Advances in Understanding Natural Climate Change” on November 24.⁷

“Essentially the climate system is a very complex, there is one part of anthropogenic forcing. It is a very, very weaker, much weaker than what the IPCC claims, at least half,” Scafetta claimed in his talk.

“There is some volcano activity, so there is, some internal variability, but essentially there is also a dynamic component, a harmonic component which is regulated by astronomical forcing. And so this forcing is driven by the movement of the planets around the sun that creates some set of stable resonance that will synchronize the solar and climate activity.”

2017

Nicola Scafetta is listed as a contributor to Climate Change: The Facts 2017, a book released by the Institute for Public Affairs (IPA) and edited by Jennifer Marohasy. While investigating the authors, DeSmog noted that one of the IPA’s listed “leading experts” involved in the book is New Zealand’s Ken Ring, who in addition to being a described “long range weather forecaster” has written “two, possibly three, books about cats” including Pawmistry: How to Read Your Cat’s Paws in 1998.⁸

According to the book description:⁹

“Climate Change: The Facts 2017 brings together contributions on the latest climate science from some of the world’s leading experts in the field including John Abbot, Sallie Baliunas, Paul Driessen, Tony Heller, Craig Idso, Clive James, Pat Michaels, Jo Nova, Ian Plimer, Tom Quirk, Peter Ridd, Ken Ring, Nicola Scafetta, Willie Soon, Roy Spencer, and Anthony Watts.

There are also essays by Matt Ridley, and Bjørn Lomborg on the economics of climate change, and by Simon Breheny on how the freedom to discuss climate change science is under threat.”¹⁰

Prior versions of the book featured contributions from a range of prominent climate change deniers, and describes mainstream climate change research as “pseudo-science.”¹¹

June 2011

Scafetta was a speaker at the Heartland Institute’s Sixth International Conference on Climate Change.¹²

May 27, 2011

Nicola Scafetta was one of fourteen Amici, described as “well-qualified climate scientists,” who claimed that the “EPA’s endangerment finding is not ‘rational’ and therefore arbitrary and capricious.”¹³

According to the petitioners, representing the Coalition for Responsible Regulation, Inc.:¹⁴

“[T]he Earth’s climate is not changing in an unusual or anomalous fashion. The EPA relied on instrumental data that were adjusted to exaggerate the increase in global temperatures.”¹⁵

Petitioners listed were:

February 26, 2009

When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency called for alternative views on climate change, three skeptics presented: Richard Lindzen, Jean Lind and Nicola Scafetta.

In his presentation, Scafetta suggests that “a significant portion of climate change is natural and linked to changes of solar activity.”and also discusses “the possibility of an imminent global cooling.”¹⁶

His findings have circulated through the skeptical science community, and on skeptical blogs such as WUWT (Watts Up With That).

December 2006

Scafetta was the co-author of “Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature,” a paper widely quoted by climate skeptics.

Many researchers (PDF) in the field have viewed Scafetta’s claims as being incorrect, and his papers have also been debunked by scientists at RealClimate.¹⁷

It appears that Scafetta refused to release the code to the software he used in this study. This meant that his results could not be replicated by climate scientists.¹⁸

Affiliations

Science and Public Policy Institute (SPPI) — Scafetta published his paper, “Climate Change and Its Causes” (PDF) with SPPI.

Publications

May of Scafetta’s skeptical opinion articles and publications were published by organizations known for doubting the existence of climate change (including the Heartland Institute, and the Science and Public Policy Institute).

Sample publications include:

“Why the Anthropogenic Theory Proposed by the IPCC Should Be Questioned.” Watts Up With That. March 14, 2010.
“Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record.” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, L17718, 5 PP. Dec 2006.
“Climate Change Reconsidered: The Report of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)” (Contributing author). 2009. Editors S. Fred Singer and Craig Idso. Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute.
“Is climate sensitive to solar variability?” (PDF) Physics Today (*Published in the “Opinion” section). March 2008. Nicola Scafetta and Bruce J. West.
“Climate Change and Its Causes” (PDF). Science and Public Policy Institute original paper. March 18, 2010.
Disrupted Networks: from physics to climate change. Bruce J. West and Nicola Scafetta, World Scientific Publishing Company (2010).