On climate change, weโre politically polarizedโwhich would be bad enough, but thatโs not all. The hole weโve dug is even deeperโas new research clearlyย suggests.
Thereโs yet another study out on Democrats, Republicans, and climate change, this time from Lawrence Hamilton of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. Over the last two years, in a series of regional surveys, Hamilton asked nearly 9,500 people questions about climate changeโfrom Appalachia to the Gulf Coast, and from New Hampshire toย Alaska.ย
Across all these regions, he consistently found the following phenomenon:ย Democrats and Republicans who claimed to know less about the climate issue were more like one another in terms of whether they accepted the science. Democrats and Republicans who claimed to know a lot about the issue, by contrast, were vastly polarizedโwith knowledgeable Democrats overwhelmingly accepting the science, and knowledgeable Republicans overwhelmingly denyingย it.
โPolitical polarization is greatest among the Republicans and Democrats who are most confident that they understand this issue,โ writes Hamilton. โRepublicans and Democrats less sure about their understanding also tend to be less far apart in theirย beliefs.โ
This core finding itself is not newโa 2008 Pew survey also found that Republicans with a college level of education were less likely to accept the science of climate than Republicans who lack such education.ย Other studies have also underscored this fundamental point. But for precisely that reason, Hamiltonโs research kind of puts it in the realm of indisputable political fact. Not only are we polarized over climate change, but our knowledge and sophistication, when combined with our politics, make mattersย worse.
How could this be? For Hamilton, the explanation lies in the interaction between how we get information (from trusted news and Internet sources, we think, but weโre actually being selective) and our own biases in evaluating it (objectively, we think, but again, weโre actually being selective). โPeople increasingly choose news sources that match their own views,โ Hamilton writes. โMoreover, they tend to selectively absorb information even from this biased flow, fitting it into their pre-existing beliefs.โ In other words, weโre twice biasedโbased on our views and information sourcesโand moreover, twice biased in differentย directions.
Thus it really makes a lot of sense that those who are paying less attention to the climate issue, whether nominally Democrat or Republican, are less polarized and less sure of themselves. Theyโre not working nearly as hard at reaffirming their convictions, and refuting the convictions of the other side. (Hamiltonโs study implies, though, that that they may have a different problemโthey know so little that they may be more likely to be buffeted by the weather in terms of how they think about climate. If itโs hot out, maybe theyโll worry. If itโs cold, theyโllย scoff.)
Overall, the big picture is that our society is not making up its mind in anything like a rational or scientific manner about climate change. Thatโs unfortunateโbut it would be a form of denial itself at this point to reject theย finding.ย
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