See update below: Monckton responded (sort of) and Abraham has a new letter back. See below the original post.
John Abraham, a Professor of Thermal Sciences at the University of St. Thomas and a Guardian Environment blogger, has challenged the loud-mouthed potty peer, Lord Christopher Monckton, to put his money where his mouth is. Abraham offers Monckton two bets to provide proof of his outlandish and wrong claims about global warming, with all proceeds headed for a “charity that deals with climate issues.”
Read Abraham’s challenge letter below:
Dear Mr. Monckton,
I understand that you’ve claimed Earth’s temperatures will likely decrease by 0.5 oC in two years, but most certainly by 2020. Specifically, you stated this on a website:
“Meanwhile, enjoy what warmth you can get. A math geek with a track-record of getting stuff right tells me we are in for 0.5 Cº of global cooling. It could happen in two years, but is very likely by 2020. His prediction is based on the behavior of the most obvious culprit in temperature change here on Earth – the Sun.”
Here is the link: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/27/the-200-months-of-the-pause/
I am calling your claim. I challenge you to a $1000 bet on both. Specifically,
1. I challenge you to a $1000 bet that the Earth temperature will not drop 0.5 C in two years
2. I challenge you to a second $1000 bet that the Earth temperature will not drop 0.5 C by 2020
Let’s keep stipulations as few as possible. My only requirement is that any major volcanic eruptions would make the bet void. I will let you choose the temperature dataset (NASA GISTEMP, NOAA, HADCRUT4). Any reputable data set of land-ocean surface temperatures. I will let you choose the starting year of 2012 or 2013. Obligations to pay can be based off our word and the publicity of this challenge. If you require payment to be sent to a third party ahead of time, I will gladly oblige.
Please respond at your earliest convenience, I am anxious to finalize this agreement. Please be assured that if you decline this wager, I will make your declination public.
Can we agree to donate the money to a charity that deals with climate issues. Selected by winner of the wager.
Cheers, As Always
Dr. John Abraham
Professor
University of St. Thomas
UPDATE August 29: Christopher Monckton posted a (typically odd and conspiratorial personal attack) response to Professor Abraham’s original letter. In the brief bit that is actually responsive to the wager, Monckton claims: “someone wants to take a bet with me about whether the world will cool by 0.5 K before 2020 is out. However, it was not I but another who forecast that.” (Monckton chose to post his response on WUWT, which I refuse to link to. Google it if you wish.)
In kind, Professor Abraham released the following response:
Dear Mr. Monckton,
It is clear that you are unwilling to stand by the predictions made in your article. Specifically, you stated that it is likely a temperature decrease of 0.5 C is likely to occur in the near future. I presented an opportunity for you to put this prediction to the test. Specifically, I offered two wagers. First, would the global temperature anomaly decrease 0.5C in a two-year period starting from either 2012 or 2013. I gave you the choice of starting year. To be very simple, I challenged you to a wager that either the 2014 temperature will be 0.5C less than the 2012 temperature, or that the 2015 temperature will be 0.5C less than 2013. I also gave you the choice of land-sea temperature dataset.
Once again, I have shown that you’ve made nonsensical claims. It is remarkable that your response consists of personal attack and hollow legal threats, but the lack of courage to withstand the challenge.
In the event you can work up the courage to stand behind your claims, please let me know.
Cheerfully yours,
Dr. John Abraham
Professor
University of St. Thomas
P.S. Since this wager has been publicized, I have received requests from esteemed scientists around the world to participate. As you deliberate, please consider accepting the same $1000 wagers from other scientists.
