The Washington Post reportedย March 10 that the Trump administration was considering some type of financial help for the failing U.S. shale oil and gas industry, โas industry officials close to the administration clamor for help.โ Those officials โย billionaire shale CEO Harold Hamm was likely among them โ seemed desperate for government assistance because, as DeSmog has documented, their deeply indebted businesses have lost billions of dollars during the fracking boom. Even before the recent oil price war and COVID-19 pandemic, these companies could hardly stay afloat, making cries for some type of corporate welfare likelyย unavoidable.ย
But that’s not the same message across the entire oil and gasย industry.
At the same time,ย the head of the American Petroleum Institute โ the oil and gas industry’s most powerful lobbying groupย โ said the industry was not interested in seeking a bailout, which didn’t exactly sound like the desperation reported by The Post. It seemed like an odd mix of messaging from theย industry.ย
The idea of bailing out the shale companies was not well received by many politicians, environmental groups, andย conservatives. Efforts to directly bail outย the shale industry in the federal stimulus package wereย apparentlyย abandoned.ย
The next proposed oil industry bailout cameย March 19ย when the Department of Energy (DOE) formalized its intent to buy 77 million gallons of oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), an emergency stockpile of oil.ย That idea lasted a bit longer than the first bailout proposal, but the DOE killed the idea late onย Marchย 25.ย
On March 26,ย World Oil magazine quoted DOE spokeswoman Shaylyn Hynes, whoย seemed to indicate that the agency still wanted to provide assistance toย โsmall to medium size American energy companies and their employees.โ Independent shale companies, unlike the oil majors like Exxon and BP, would fall into that smaller sizeย category.ย
โThe American energy sector is a major driver of our nationโs economy and it is being significantly harmed by the impacts of COVID-19 and international market manipulation,โ Hynes wrote.ย โSmall to medium size American energy companies and their employees should be provided the same relief being provided to other parts of our economy, and the Secretary calls on Congress to work with the Administration to fund the Presidentโs request as soon asย possible.โย
That marks two failed efforts to bail outย shale companiesย while the oil and gasย industry’s top trade group continued saying the industry didn’t want a bailout. What’s going onย here?
โThe challenges [the U.S. oil industry] faces today are unprecedented, but they are not an excuse to walk away from the free market principles that have guided this industry for more than a century,โ API SVP, Frank Macchiarola. https://t.co/6VAEow7r6G pic.twitter.com/Wr6v4Z5O1q
โ American Petroleum Institute (@APIenergy) March 25, 2020
Strategic Petroleum Reserve Purchase Wouldn’t Helpย Shale
The U.S. shale industry received its first real bailout in 2015 when the 40-year crude oil export ban was liftedย under President Obama. This spurred a huge boom in shale oil production because companies could now sell their light oil directly to the rest of the world, without first passing through U.S.ย refineries.
At that point,ย the shale industry was running out of markets in the U.S. Refiners couldn’t take any moreย lightย oil coming out of shale regions like the Bakken because many U.S. refineriesย are set up to process heavy oils from Mexico, Venezuela, andย Canada.ย
With no more U.S. buyers,ย shale firms needed the export ban on domestically produced crude oilย lifted, and Congress acquiesced at the end of 2015.ย By the end of 2019, U.S. oil exports reached levels of 4.4 million barrels a day โ a remarkable amount ofย oil.ย
In another move that would allow the industry to sell more oil, the government’s proposal to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve seemed like another potential bailout for the shaleย industry.ย
The SPR reportedly has 77 million barrels of spare capacity and filling it would require somewhere near $3 billion. However, such a purchaseย would be unlikely to change the financial dynamics ofย the shale industry. That amount is equivalent to about twoย months of the current U.S. crude exports. And if U.S. oil producers are only getting current (extremely low) market prices for the oil, it certainly wonโt help shale oil producers make the money they needย to pay back the wave of debt looming overย them.
Daniel Yergin, an oil historianย who has been aย champion of theย industry andย was instrumental inย getting the oil export ban lifted, recently made this point. โThe government may not be able to buy enough oil to prop up the oil market,โย Yergin reportedly said,ย according to E&E News.
There’s another flaw in the plan to bail out the shale industry by filling the SPR. As DeSmog has recently reported, much of what’s being fracked and drilled out of shale regions is not actually considered โoilโ but instead an extremely light petroleum known asย โcondensate,โ which means it likely canโt go into the SPR. According to the Department of Energy, over 60 percent of the current oil in the SPR is heavier โsour oil,โ while the shale industry produces light โsweet oilโย and a lot of even lighter condensate and naturalย gas.
Topping off the Strategic Petroleum Reserveย was never going to save the shaleย industry.ย
Oil tanks at the St. Jamesย Strategicย Petroleumย Reserveย Terminal connected to Bayou Choctaw, one of four sites on the gulf ofย Mexico, each located near a major center of petrochemical refining and processing, in this case Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Credit: Julieย Dermansky
Shale Companies Have No Long Game, Exxonย Doesย
In a remarkable interview on March 26, CEO Scott Sheffield of shale firm Pioneer Natural Resources added great clarity to why shale companies are unlikely to get bailed out and why the American Petroleum Instituteย has been touting free markets and opposing bailouts. Exxon has a huge stake in the Permian shale play in Texas, andย Sheffield appears to admit that Exxon holds all the cards right now when it comes to any type of shaleย bailouts.ย
Crude oil has been slammed amid a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and a global economic slowdown. Pioneer Natural Resources CEO Scott Sheffield shares his industry outlook. $PXD pic.twitter.com/8ud4XAPwup
โ CNBC‘s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) March 26, 2020
Sheffield appeared on CNBC‘s Fast Moneyย with analyst Brian Kelly, and the two discussedย the current oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia and how the shale companies and politicians like Sen. Kevin Cramerย (who represents the shale oil state of North Dakota) have been clamoring for President Trump to try to get Saudi Arabia to stop the priceย war.ย
Sheffield explained why these efforts weren’t goingย well.ย
โWeโve had opposition from Exxon who controls API and TXOGA,โ Sheffield said.ย โThey prefer all the independents to go bankrupt and pick up theย scraps.โ
API is the American Petroleum Institute and TXOGA is the Texas Oil and Gasย Association.ย
Kelly then asked,ย โIs itย the big supermajors against the mid and smallย companies?โ
โExactly,โ Sheffield replied.ย โThat is definitely whatโs goingย on.โ
For the past two years, DeSmog has detailed the failed finances of the shale industry and predicted that it couldn’t last forever.ย All the while shale CEOs like Sheffield were pitching a different story toย investors.ย
Kelly asked Sheffield what happens if nothing changes to help the shaleย industry.ย
โWhat happens?โ Sheffield said. โAs you know there’s about 74 public independents, thereโs only gonna be about 10 left at the end of 2021 that have decent balance sheets. The rest are going to become ghosts orย zombies.โ
Oil and gas company Apache’s cryogenic processing plant at the Diamond facility in the Alpine High shale region of the Permian Basin. Apache announced it would abandon Alpine High earlier this year. Credit: Justinย Hamelย ยฉย 2020
Presumably, Exxon and other companies who can outlast this crisis will gladly pick up the โghosts and zombies.โ This would seem like ruthless behavior from Exxon and the American Petroleum Institute, who constantly tout the jobs created by the oil industry. Wiping out those smaller companies will result in huge job losses in an industry already threatened by increasing automation.ย
However, in another rare momentย of honesty from an oil company CEO years earlier,ย former ExxonMobil head Lee Raymond made clear why helping Americansย wasn’t a concern of his when he was running the international oil major.ย
According toย Steve Collโs book Private Empire, when Raymond was asked if Exxonย would build more refineries in theย U.S.ย to help America, he replied, โIโm not aย U.S.ย company and I donโt make decisions based on whatโs good for theย U.S.โ
Raymond is now on the board ofย JPMorgan Chase, the bank, which according to The Washington Post, is one of the biggest lenders to the fossil fuel industry. That’s probably not good news for shale firms either. Raymond’s successor was Rex Tillerson who left Exxon to head the Trump State Department for aย period.ย
The shale industry, on the other hand, is only a decade old and simply does not have the political power of Exxon and its apparentย surrogate, the American Petroleum Institute. Exxon may beย likely to get its bailouts while making sure that smaller, less stableย shale companiesย fail.ย
One immediate boon for Exxon and the other major oil companies just came from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which has essentially suspended enforcement of environmental lawsย for the industry, citing the coronavirus pandemic as justification. This is much more beneficial to the large companies who produce the oil but also own pipelines and refineries. Shale companies just produce oil and gas and don’t ownย refineries.ย
And who was lobbying for this bailout for the industry? The American Petroleum Institute.ย It’s clear that the trade group, with the backing of Exxon, is good at getting what it wants from the Trump administration. But that’s bad news for the shaleย industry.ย
Too Much Badย Debt
Current market turmoil aside, the death of manyย shale companies was going to beย inevitable. The current duel crises of an oil price war and the coronavirus are just speeding itย along.ย
Industry consolidation, in whichย two or more shale companies would combine,ย is being discussed asย an option within the industry. However, oil and gas firm Occidental’s recent purchase of Anadarko for its shale assets has quickly turned out to be one of the worst major acquisitions in the history of theย industry.ย
CNBC‘s Kelly asked Sheffield about the option ofย consolidation as a possible survival strategy for the shaleย industry.ย
โConsolidation canโt happen because too many companies have too much bad debt,โ Sheffieldย said.
Another remarkable admission from a shale CEO.ย
With the current crisis and Exxon and the American Petroleum Institute apparently working against the shale industry, it probably won’t be a long wait until shale is just a bunch of โghosts orย zombies.โย
Main image: Antique truck rusting in the shale oil fields of Reeves County, Texas, in the Permian Basin. Credit:ย Justinย Hamelย ยฉย 2020
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