Itโs that time of year again. Thousands of delegates are descending on Marrakech for the latest round of climate negotiations. After last yearโs blockbuster in Paris, how does Marrakechย compare?
Early impressions of the 22nd Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change โ or the much more manageable โCOP22โ โ are that it is certainlyย different.
Inevitably, there is not the same buzz as inย Paris.
For starters, there simply arenโt as many people in Marrakech. At the Paris meeting, organisers estimated there were a total of 40,000 participants. The Moroccan government is preparing for about half that this time, with many of those joining in the secondย week.
But that doesnโt mean it is any lessย important.ย
While Paris was manic, the atmosphere in Marrakech is moreย curious.
There are plenty of issues to resolve. The Paris Agreement laid the foundations for action to curb warming to 2 degrees, or even 1.5 degrees, above pre-industrial levels. But exactly how countries are going to do this remains somewhatย vague.
โWe need to make things a lot more concrete at Marrakech if we want to give a clear political signal that we are serious about reducing our emissions and at the same time helping poor countries adapt to climate change,โ Harjeet Singh from NGO ActionAid told journalists at one of the very first press conferences of theย meeting.
That means agreeing how to raise more money for adaptation through the Green Climate Fund, as well as how to spend it. It also means countries agreeing how to ramp up ambition โ known as the ratchet mechanism โ as current emissions reduction pledges wonโt deliver the 2Cย goal.
Alden Myer, Director of Strategy and Policy, Union of Concerned Scientists called on negotiators to fix these issues early in theย conference.
โWe can’t afford for Marrakech to be seen as an afterthought. Rather it must catalyse real actions and build on momentum coming out of Paris, and lay the groundwork for much more progress to be made over the next several years,โ heย said.
So there is plenty to playย for.
A quick trip around countriesโ stalls โ rather grandly called โpavilionsโ โ shows some countries seem to be taking that warning more seriously than others,ย however.
The contrast between China, the worldโs largest emitter, and a country that barely breaks the top 20, Turkey, is prettyย stark.
In the next hangar is the USโs effort. As always, it has gone big. It has a shiny globe, a shiny big screen, and some (slightly less shiny) people always on hand to answer journalistsโย questions.
Snugly next door is the UKโs hut, which isnโt yet open for business (particularly when people start taking photos). It was a similar story at Canadaโs pitch; four plywood walls, a few people in suits, and that was aboutย it.
There is one obvious reason for the USโs additional effort. No matter how much officials try to skirt around it (normally by not mentioning it until asked), the issue of who will be Americaโs next President loomsย large.
If Trump wins, the US will have elected a climate denialist as President. For delegates participating in โthe COP of actionโ, Trumpโs obstinacy is an awkwardย meta-narrative.
A carefully constructed line to counter awkward questions is already emerging โ he is only one man, delegates say. Commitment to the Paris Agreement canโt be undone for at least four years anyway, theyย cry.
That may be true, but while negotiators have arrived hoping to lay a smooth path for the implementation of the Paris Agreementโs goals, a Trump win could still shake the conferenceโsย foundations.
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