Our epic history series continues with a look at Lord Lawsonโs muddled account of when he first came to talk about climateย change.
โThe first time I broached the matter [of climate change] in public was in the course of a lecture I gave at the London School of Economics [LSE] in 2004,โ the climate denier Lord Lawson recalls in the updated edition of his autobiography, Memoirs of A Radicalย Tory.
The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) founder writes: โThe concern I expressed about climate change in my 2004 lecture was that the Treasury had, unaccountably, not been asked to make a dispassionate economic assessment of the issue before the hugely costly commitment to the rapid decarbonisation of the British economy had been made โ not even the most elementary form of cost-benefit analysis. That would certainly not have been permitted in myย day.โ
Slightlyย Muddled
Lawson tells those who ask that: โAfter that [the climate sceptic economist] David Henderson, who I had known for many years and who had been taking an interest in the subject for some time, starting talking to me about this. And as I said in the dedication, he was to arouse my interest but it was actually after I made thisย speech.โ
But, old Lawson has his own story of coming to the climate debate slightly muddled. His talk, titled โChallenging the Consensusโ was delivered at 6.30pm on Monday 15 November 2004. He had, in fact, already broached the issue of climate change in the House of Lords in the spring ofย 2004.
As Henderson recalls: โEarly in 2004, our joint cause acquired a notable ally when I convinced a former chancellor to the exchequer, Nigel (Lord) Lawson, that climate change issues deserved his seriousย attention.โ
At this time, Fred Singer, head of the sceptic Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) in the United States, was already promoting Henderson and Ian Castles, former secretary of the Australian Government Department of Finance, in their attack on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Henderson persuaded Lawson to support his criticisms of the IPCC statistics in the House ofย Lords.
IPCCย Economics
It all began with Lord Taverne, who rose to his feet at the House of Lords in April 2004 and asked Baroness Farrington of Ribbleton whether the British government was satisfied with the economic and statistical work of the IPCC. His concerns were based on the critique of the IPCC set out by David Henderson and Ianย Castles.
He said: โMy Lords, does the minister agree that forecasts of global warming depend not only on scientific forecasts but on economic forecasts? Is the department aware that some extremely pertinent criticisms have been made of the special report [on] emissions scenarios by two very distinguished economists โ Mr Ian Castles, the former head of Australiaโs Bureau of Statistics, and Mr David Henderson, the former head of the economic division of OECD?โ
Lord Lawson was dissatisfied with Baroness Farringtonโs response and joined theย attack.
โLord Taverne has put his finger on what is potentially a major scandal,โ he weighed in. โUnder the flawed proceedings of the IPCC even the lowest emissions scenario, which leads to the lowest extent of projected global warming, is based on a rate of growth of the developing countries in the coming century that is far faster than has ever beenย known.
โAs a result, by the end of the century under its projections, the average income of Algerians, South Africans and North Koreans will be higher than that of the citizens of the Unitedย States.
โIs the noble Baroness really content that this very important matter on which major policy and public expenditure decisions have to be taken should be left to what is little more than an environmentalist closed shop that is unsullied by any acquaintance with economics, statistics or, indeed, economicย history?โ
Faultyย Methodology
Singer certainly noticed the short contribution and, a few days later, copied the extract from the Hansard official record of Parliamentary proceedings and emailed it to members of the SEPP in the US.
Singer told his loyal readers: โThe noble Baroness is wrong. The CastlesโHenderson critique is not about the forecasting per se but about the faulty methodologyย employed.โ
By September that year, it seems that Lawson had already begun working with Julian Morris at the Exxon- and Koch-funded think tank โ the International Policy Network (IPN) โ and Henderson and Colin Robinson of the tobacco- and oil-funded Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
Henderson then convened an โeconomic groupโ with a series of meetings at the Westminster Business School. This would arguably prove to be the nucleus of the future GWPF.
Secretย Meetings
But, Henderson refuses to answer questions about the economics group; Peiser, as GWPF director, says that these meetings were secret, and Lawson denies that Henderson was a founder of theย charity.
Peiser told me: โYou are the last person I would discuss these kind of private meetings before we set up. They were private meetings. They were meetings that obviously discussed the GWPF, but I am not prepared to talk about them with you or anyoneย else.โ
Some insight may be gained, however, from Sir Ian Byatt, who attended those early meetings having known Henderson since they both studied at Oxford together. They enjoyed regular luncheons at the exclusive private membersโ Oxford and Cambridge Club in Pall Mall during which he was invited toย attend.
Sir Ian told me: โI see him [David Henderson] as the impresario, the intellectual Diaghilev who brought together the stars โ in Diaghilevโs case Stravinsky, Nijinsky and Picasso, in Davidโs case Lawson, [Richard] Lindzen and [Ross]ย McKitrick.
โDavid has, throughout the debate, stressed the importance of looking, rigorously and professionally, right across the board, at the โscienceโ as well as the economics, and the cultureโฆ Compared with Davidโs standard, the work of many economists (and others) is deficient; insofar as they โaccept the scienceโ, neglecting the uncertainties in the scientific analysis and their interaction with other uncertaintiesโฆ Like other practical people, such as doctors, we must always be careful to avoid the cure being worse than theย disease.โ
Groupย Demands
Hendersonโs economic group collaborated on a letter to the Times that September which was, once again, eagerly sent around the US sceptic community byย Singer.
The letter accused both Prime Minister Tony Blair and the Conservative opposition leader, Michael Howard, of being of โone mindโ and holding โthe same alarmist view of the worldโ and calling for โthe same radical โ and costly โ programme ofย action.โ
They had given too much credence to โsombre assessments and dark scenariosโ while ignoring the uncertainties of climateย science.
Lawson and his co-signees warned darkly that climate policies would โraise costs for enterprises and households, both directly as consumers and as taxpayers. They would make all of us significantly and increasingly worseย off.โ
They concluded by demanding the Treasury step in and stop such expensive government policies. A month later, Lawson was again able to air the groupโs concerns in the House ofย Lords.
Blood-Curdlingย Warnings
โMy Lords, does the noble Lord agree that the prime ministerโs blood-curdling remarks about the imminent threat to the people of this country from global warming are probably about as well founded as his earlier remarks about the imminent threat to the people of this country from weapons of mass destruction inย Iraq?โ
He went on: โBefore any further speeches are made or action taken, would it not be a good idea if the prime minister asked his close friend and loyal colleague the chancellor to instruct the Treasury to undertake a thorough cost/benefit analysis of this difficultย issue?โ
Lord Whitty, then the Labour Parliamentary under-secretary at the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), responsible for sustainable energy, hit back: โTo call warnings about global warming โblood-curdlingโ seems to me the height ofย irresponsibility.
โI am surprised at the noble Lord, Lord Lawson. This is one of the major problems facing the world. It is important that we tackle it in a cost-effective way. The Treasury and the chancellor have been very involved in developing the best policy measures, support systems and R&D in order for us to be at the forefront throughout the world in tackling climateย change.โ
Lawson’sย Speech
Only after his sharp interventions in the House of Lords did Lawson speak at the LSE. The speech outlined his time in office but then, unprompted, he moved onto the issue of climateย change.
He claimed that both Defra, in Britain, and the IPCC had a โvested interestโ in exaggerating the threat of climate change, while Blair had โsomething of a penchant for apocalyptic warnings based on flimsyย evidence.โ
The atheist then set out his theory that climate change had replaced religion in the new secular world, especially in Europe: โPeople still feel the need for comfort that the transcendent certainties of religion can provide, and it is what might be termed the quasi-religion of greenery which has filled the vacuum, with reasoned questioning of any of its mantras regarded as a form ofย blasphemy.โ
Lawson, a member of the Economic Affairs Committee in the House of Lords, then persuaded his colleagues to hold an investigation into the economics of climate policy. He writes in his autobiography: โThis enabled me to begin seriously to educate myself about the subject, in the course of which I discovered, inter alia, that important aspects of the science were far fromย certain.โ
Scepticย Attention
This Parliamentary hearing would be the first time that British sceptics had been taken seriously by any part of the establishment. The fact that the British establishment was even discussing the lurid allegations of the sceptics would play well in the US, where an upper crust accent and the historic seat of democracy can lend credence even to the conspiracy theory of weapons of massย destruction.
Four days after Lawson attacked climate science at the LSE, Henderson, his new mentor and advisor on climate, was the all-expenses-paid guest of the US-based Exxon-funded free market think tank, the Marshallย Institute.
Speaking at a Washington Roundtable on science and public policy, entitled โAre the IPCCโs Global Warming Forecasts Based on Faulty Economics?โ Henderson told the audience: โYou can act directly if you know any of these officials โ and I gather many of you here are staffers โ by persuading people in the legislature that these agencies and departments should be involved, so they will bring pressure on these economic and statistical agencies andย departments.โ
He concluded: โThe stakes are highโฆ you have a better chance of success in this city than people like me have with the British bureaucracy.โ Henderson is a former professor of economics at Oxford University with an insiderโs knowledge of the civilย service.
Having felt himself ignored and attacked by Rajendra K. Pachauri at the IPCC, he found himself welcomed into the warm embrace of the army of free market think tankers in the US, eager to recruit such able men to itsย ranks.
Next time, our DeSmog UK epic history post will look at how Julian Morrisโs free market think tank spread its influence in its attack on the Kyotoย Protocol.
Photo: The Guardian via Creativeย Commons
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